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Arch Manning and Texas were a disappointment in 2025. There’s no getting around that.
But that’s only half of the story. Because if you were paying consideration after everybody else deserted the Hook’em bandwagon after a loss to Florida in early October, you would have been inspired with what you saw.
Manning was one of the greatest quarterbacks in faculty soccer down the stretch, and the Longhorns ended their 2025 campaigns with seven wins from eight, including triumphs over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Michigan.
There was cause to be excited about what was to come from Texas, particularly with Manning returning.
Optimism grew further when Steve Sarkisian was ready to recruit two terrific tailbacks, Arizona State’s Raleek Brown and NC State’s Hollywood Smothers, from the portal. Cam Coleman, one of the nation’s most thrilling large receivers, also joined the social gathering.
There is great upside in Austin, once again. The oddsmakers have taken observe, as the Longhorns (+300) are primarily co-favorites with Georgia (+280) to win the SEC, and they’re tied with Indiana as the third alternative to win the nationwide championship at +750.
But the downside is the same as it was last yr. The Longhorns will want to be fairly shut to good to make the College Football Playoff, as they have an absolute beast of a schedule to deal with this season.
Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
By Halloween, Texas will have hosted Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Florida, and visited Tennessee and Oklahoma. That doesn’t point out their journey to LSU in November, or their season finale at Kyle Field against Texas A&M.
Overall, ESPN ranks Texas’ energy of schedule as the third-toughest in the nation, only trailing Arkansas and Oklahoma. There’s the break when you bolt the comparatively pleasant confines of the Big 12 for the SEC.
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With Manning as the headliner, and a program that has become one of the sport’s greatest headliners, it’s fairly simple to see how the Longhorns become overvalued in the betting market.
They were thought-about one of the favorites to win the nationwide championship last season, and are proper back at the prime of the board despite a disappointing 2025 marketing campaign and a brutal path in 2026.
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They may be one of the greatest groups in the nation, and Manning may be one of the elite quarterbacks in faculty soccer, but that doesn’t imply they’re a shoo-in to get to the Playoff. Not in this day and age.
I think it’s fairly shut to a coin flip whether Manning and the Longhorns get into the dance, so at plus-money, the worth is there to fade the Longhorns once again.
The play: Texas to miss the CFB Playoff (+150, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports activities bettor with 10 years of expertise in the playing trade. He loves utilizing recreation idea to assist punters win bracket swimming pools, discover lengthy photographs, and study how to beat the market in mainstream and area of interest sports activities.