Like everyone else, I’ll be watching the largest present on Election Night: When the mud settles, will Republicans still management the United States Senate?

But So, Does It Matter? is largely about California politics, and we’ve got a lot of drama of our own.

Hundreds of contests will be determined here Tuesday. I couldn’t start to cowl them all. Some will be nail-biters; others won’t be shut, but the margins will still inform us something.

We’ll get some solutions Tuesday evening. Maybe even a shock or two. REUTERS

These aren’t essentially the closest or even the most vital contests. They’re the ones I’ll watch particularly carefully. And because this is California, I’m counting on surprises.

Can Some Republicans Survive California’s New Congressional Map?

Democrats drew Proposition 50’s congressional map to knock more Republicans out of workplace. Tuesday we’ll see how nicely it labored.

In CD 6, Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley faces Democrat Richard Pan. Can Kiley pull off an upset with out the Republican label? That’s an experiment value watching.

In the Central Valley, Republican David Valadao (CD 22) faces Democrat Randy Villegas, while Democrat Adam Gray (CD 13) defends his seat against Republican Kevin Lincoln. In San Diego County, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert (CD 48) are vying to succeed retiring Republican Darrell Issa.

Then there’s CD 40: Republican incumbents Young Kim and Ken Calvert combating over the same seat. Thanks to redistricting and California’s top-two major system, two sitting Republicans are attempting to put each other out of work.

Is the Democratic Establishment Losing Its Grip?

Three longtime Democratic congressmen face challenges from their own get together.

Mike Thompson (CD 4) faces Eric Jones; Doris Matsui (CD 7) faces Mai Vang; and Jimmy Gomez (CD 34) faces Angela Gonzales-Torres. All three challengers need to ship an incumbent packing, though they’re hardly ideological clones.

Meanwhile, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are battling in San Francisco’s CD 11 to succeed Nancy Pelosi. Both are Democrats, but they supply totally different visions of where the get together should go.

If the outdated guard is on its approach out, who’s transferring in?

Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Bacerra and his spouse, Dr. Carolina Reyes, solid their ballots. Nathan Weyland for CA Post

What Will the Statewide Candidate Results Tell Us?

I don’t expect Steve Hilton to beat Xavier Becerra for governor. What I need to know is whether Hilton can crack 40%.

As I wrote about the newest Berkeley IGS ballot, Hilton has rallied Republican voters, but President Trump’s dismal recognition in California doesn’t assist. A September survey discovered just 27% statewide approval for Trump, including 21% among impartial and other-party voters. Hilton wants these voters.

Then there’s Insurance Commissioner: DSA-aligned Jane Kim versus Ben Allen, an extraordinarily liberal Democrat who, in my estimation, falls somewhere between Bernie Sanders and Gavin Newsom.

I’ve defined why neither gets my vote. I’m leaving that race clean.

The Statewide Ballot Measure Battles

My voter information covers all 14 propositions. A few are particularly attention-grabbing.

Proposition 3 would make California’s supposedly non permanent larger revenue taxes everlasting. The California Teachers Association is “all in” to lengthen this highest revenue tax bracket…

Voter ID enjoys broad public support nationally, but will that translate into a victory in deep-blue California? This is a notably attention-grabbing take a look at of whether an election-integrity measure can win support beyond the Republican base, with Democrats working a “Reject Trump” marketing campaign against it. Proposition 39 would require voter identification and citizenship verification.

Then there’s Proposition 40, the billionaire wealth tax. High-profile billionaires have poured huge sums into defeating it. Google co-founder Sergey Brin spearheaded the effort to put two rival measures, Propositions 41 and 42, on the poll. Here’s the kicker: If either passes with more sure votes than Proposition 40, it could stop the wealth tax from taking impact—even if Proposition 40 passes. That’s an costly insurance coverage coverage.

Proposition 43 would restore the two-thirds requirement for native particular taxes, closing a loophole that undermined Proposition 13.

Proposition 45 would reform environmental evaluate necessities. Will voters join California’s regulatory obstacles with the value of housing and infrastructure?

Here are the newest Opinion tales on the 2026 election:

Regional Ballot Measures: More Taxes or Government Reform?

The Bay Area’s Measure RTM proposes a 14-year regional sales-tax enhance for transit businesses. Will voters give these troubled methods more cash?

San Diego County gives two totally different measures. Measure A is a thinly disguised try to intestine time period limits, wrapping accountability reforms around a third time period for the supervisors who put it on the poll. Measure B proposes a countywide sales-tax enhance.

In San Francisco, Proposition F is half of Mayor Daniel Lurie’s effort to reform metropolis authorities.

Some politicians need more cash. Others are asking to change the equipment of authorities. We’ll see which arguments promote.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass rallies supporters on Election Day. AP Photo/Ethan Swope

Will Los Angeles Take Another Sharp Turn to the Left?

I’ve called Karen Bass the worst mayor in Los Angeles historical past. Yet, as I wrote after watching the mayoral debate, if I lived in LA, I couldn’t vote for either candidate. Bass has been a catastrophe. Replacing her with democratic socialist Nithya Raman actually would not make issues higher.

The City Attorney race gives another stark alternative. Veteran prosecutor John McKinney, endorsed by LA County District Attorney Nathan Hochman and the police union, represents a more conventional law-and-order strategy. His opponent, democratic socialist Marissa Roy, has the backing of organized labor and progressive teams.

Imagine Raman and Roy profitable collectively. Two highly effective metropolis workplaces would go to candidates aligned with the socialist left. In a metropolis already wrestling with crime, homelessness and fiscal bother, that’s fairly an experiment. But given the abject failures of Bass, perhaps voters would want to attempt anything totally different…

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Nithya Raman voting on Election Day. AFP via Getty Images

Who Will Control Local Government in Orange County and San Francisco?

I’m watching 4 supervisorial contests, two in each county.

In Orange County, Republican Tim Shaw faces Democrat Connor Traut in District 4. In District 5, Republican Diane Dixon challenges incumbent Democrat Katrina Foley. Together, these races could resolve whether Republicans regain management of the Board of Supervisors.

San Francisco has two open seats that could shift the board’s ideological stability. Mayor Daniel Lurie backs Theo Ellington in District 10, where DJ Brookter and J.R. Eppler are also working.

In District 8, Lurie withdrew his endorsement of Manny Yekutiel, who suspended his marketing campaign but stays on the poll. Gary McCoy, Darshini Patel and Michael Nguyen are also working.

Will Lurie get a board more keen to work with him, or will progressives acquire floor? Different politics from Orange County, but the stakes are actual in both locations.

An individual receives an “I voted” sticker at the James Wood Community Center on Skid Row in Los Angeles, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. REUTERS

Can Republicans Hold Their 2024 Legislative Gains?

Republicans picked up legislative seats in 2024. This 12 months appears harder, and Democrats would love to take these seats back.

Plenty of aggressive Assembly and Senate contests, too many to give each its due here. I’m watching the complete: Can Republicans maintain what they gained, or will Democrats restore their overwhelming benefit in Sacramento? I’m retaining a shut eye on AD 72 where Republican Gracey Van Der Mark and Democrat (and nutball) Chris Kluwe are in a battle in coastal California. Freshmen GOP Assemblymembers Hoover, Castillo, and Gonzalez are all under heavy bombardment. And can the GOP maintain the seat of retiring Senator Brian Jones, with Kristi Bruce-Lane? This is a robust cycle for Republicans nationally. So these of us could all get washed out to sea. We’ll know quickly enough.

So, Does It Matter?

Election Night isn’t just about who wins. The margins, upsets, and shut calls can inform us where California is going.

Does the Democratic Party transfer further left? Can Republicans present a political pulse in a state where they haven’t won a statewide race in twenty years? Will taxpayers complaining about excessive taxes and dysfunctional authorities vote to restrain either one?

And will any of this ship a message to the political institution that’s run California for so lengthy?

We’ll get some solutions Tuesday evening. Maybe even a shock or two.

And, it’s value saying, that the title of this column may be a bit too rosy about seeing outcomes tonight. If any of these contests are remotely shut, we might not know outcomes until much nearer to Thanksgiving… Sigh.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.

Download The California Post App, comply with us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

California Post News: Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X, YouTube, WhatsApp, LinkedIn
California Post Sports Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, X
California Post Opinion
California Post Newsletters: Sign up here!
California Post App: Download here!
Home supply: Sign up here!
Page Six Hollywood: Sign up here!