If his time at USC were a film, “Lincoln Riley: The Trojan Odyssey” would want a huge plot twist.

So far, what we’ve seen matches the same predictable, disappointing mould.

A promising begin to every season. A setback that threatened to derail the journey. A quick restoration.

USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, in Chicago. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Then, a loss that ended any College Football Playoff hopes.

In 2022, it was Utah in the Pac-12 title sport.

In 2023, it was Washington at house.

In 2024, it was Penn State in additional time.

Last season, it was Oregon on the street.

What will occur in 2026 to Riley, the protagonist under siege? Here’s a game-by-game prediction:

San Jose State, Aug. 29

Spartans coach Ken Niumatalolo was an adviser to the UCLA employees that engineered a huge upset of the Trojans in 2023 at the Coliseum, but that was with Power Four gamers.

While there’s a dollop of expertise on this workforce, including vast receiver Malachi Riley, there’s also mass turnover on protection. Prediction: Win, 1-0.

Fresno State, Sept. 4

The Bulldogs normally play the Trojans robust — bear in mind that 50-42 traditional in 2005? — though there’s little motive to believe that will be the case this season.

Every quarterback on the roster is inexperienced, that means this is a workforce that will probably rely closely on the run. A veteran protection should be Fresno State’s power, but an operation that proclaims “Anybody, Anytime, Anywhere” is going to be overmatched by USC in the season’s early going at the Coliseum. Prediction: Win, 2-0.

Louisiana, Sept. 12

In a time of fixed upheaval, the Ragin’ Cajuns have not only held onto one of the finest nicknames in sports activities but also remained in the Sun Belt Conference for a quarter of a century. That’s something.

Quarterback Lunch Winfield, who is also a gifted runner, can make performs when seemingly nothing is there for the taking. But a protection that’s virtually totally new might appear out to lunch, and let’s face it, the expertise hole is just too nice. Prediction: Win, 3-0.

at Rutgers, Sept. 19

Greg Schiano expressed excessive confidence in his workforce at Big Ten media day, though he may be a higher salesman than coach.

The Scarlet Knights have some expertise in vast receiver KJ Duff and working back Antwan Raymond, but they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback and a largely reformulated offensive line. Prediction: Win, 4-0. 

Oregon Football head coach Dan Lanning speaks during Big Ten Media Days at Hilton Chicago on July 29, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oregon, Sept. 26

While Riley is 0-2 against the Ducks since arriving at USC, both of these losses came on the street.

Quarterback Dante Moore’s return will make a breakthrough robust — no matter the venue — but these Trojans have the offensive might to commerce touchdowns and prevail in a high-scoring battle. Prediction: Win, 5-0.

Washington, Oct. 3

The troubling actuality for the Huskies is that quarterback Demond Williams Jr. won’t have practically the same star energy around him on offense that he did a 12 months in the past.

The protection options some high-end transfers and stable returners, making it the workforce’s higher half. Coach Jedd Fisch has been a thorn in the Trojans’ aspect just lately, but even his famed trickery won’t be enough. Prediction: Win, 6-0.

at Penn State, Oct. 10

The Nittany Lions changed James Franklin with a coach who could be thought-about a clone in some respects — Matt Campbell always produced good seasons at Iowa State while never successful the huge sport.

His first Penn State workforce will function a handful of confirmed Cyclones transfers, including veteran quarterback Rocco Becht. But the Trojans will present they don’t miss D’Anton Lynn, their onetime defensive coordinator who bolted in December for the same job at his alma mater. Prediction: Win, 7-0.

USC student-athlete Jayden Maiava speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago on July 28, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

at Wisconsin, Oct. 24

Luke Fickell has been a flop with the Badgers after taking Cincinnati to the CFP.

They caught with him despite a 17-21 report, hoping he can lastly lead them to something higher than the ReliaQuest Bowl. The arrival of quarterback Colton Joseph, a former Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year at Old Dominion, supplies some hope, but this doesn’t have the really feel of a workforce succesful of upsetting the Trojans. Prediction: Win, 8-0.

Ohio State, Oct. 31

Quarterback Julian Sayin is so environment friendly that you’re virtually stunned when one of his passes falls incomplete.

If there are questions about these Buckeyes, they will come on protection given the mass departures for the NFL. But expertise is never an situation under coach Ryan Day. Here’s predicting that his workforce becomes USC’s first stumbling block of 2026. Prediction: Loss, 8-1.

at Indiana, Nov. 14

It still seems bizarre to contemplate the Hoosiers a nationwide energy given their first 136 years of soccer. But a program that had beforehand never posted a 10-win season actually did just log back-to-back appearances in the CFP, including a nationwide title.

Coach Curt Cignetti now wants to present he can maintain the wild success, and a lot of that will rely on quarterback Josh Hoover, a switch from TCU. Here’s betting that the Hoosiers have just enough to prevail in this showdown. Prediction: Loss, 8-2.

Maryland, Nov. 21

Remember that heady win the Terrapins logged at house against USC in October 2024, their remaining victory of an otherwise depressing season?

The Trojans haven’t forgotten it, either, and will ship some huge payback. Prediction: Win, 9-2.

at UCLA, Nov. 28

Entering this sport with two losses means that Riley’s CFP hopes will hinge on a street sport against a rival, never a positive factor.

Sure, the Trojans have more expertise, but the Bruins will be doubly motivated under new coach Bob Chesney. On the 20-year anniversary of Eric McNeal’s game-sealing interception during an epic upset of the second-ranked Trojans, UCLA pulls another stunner. Prediction: Loss, 9-3.

Holiday Bowl vs. Clemson, date TBA

With UCLA’s upset vaulting it into the Alamo Bowl, the Trojans head to San Diego for what could be Riley’s remaining sport in a battle of coaches on the hottest of seats.

USC wins the battle of attrition against Dabo Swinney’s workforce as half of each roster opts out, placing athletics director Jennifer Cohen on the clock to determine her coach’s future. Prediction: Win, 10-3.